{
  "reviewedRevision": "47af9d5decd9502a1084cc5958c0ee5b0e175e05",
  "sourceUrl": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Ethical-Tech-CoLab/mariupol-evacuation-model/47af9d5decd9502a1084cc5958c0ee5b0e175e05/docs/sensitivity.js",
  "sourceSha256": "5864d6fcb1ad814909361850e12af4338794da33e34fdb89b838fd5b03e205ce",
  "type": "Deterministic reproduction of upstream retrospective scores, not evacuation advice",
  "observationWindow": {
    "start": "2022-03-05",
    "end": "2022-05-20",
    "days": 77
  },
  "variants": [
    {
      "label": "Published settings",
      "bounds": {
        "bI": 10,
        "bP": 6,
        "bL": 15,
        "bT": 18,
        "bTf": -10,
        "bD": 60
      },
      "p": 6,
      "crossings": {
        "0.40": "2022-03-05",
        "0.55": "2022-03-10",
        "0.70": "2022-04-28"
      },
      "daysFromFirstHighToApril30": 51,
      "violenceDominantDays": 2,
      "dominantCounts": "D:53 C:22 R:2",
      "meanSeverity": 0.583,
      "march9Severity": 0.526424943,
      "march10Severity": 0.62386964,
      "highOrWorseDays": 43
    },
    {
      "label": "Intensity ceiling 4.8",
      "bounds": {
        "bI": 4.8,
        "bP": 6,
        "bL": 15,
        "bT": 18,
        "bTf": -10,
        "bD": 60
      },
      "p": 6,
      "crossings": {
        "0.40": "2022-03-05",
        "0.55": "2022-03-05",
        "0.70": "2022-03-10"
      },
      "daysFromFirstHighToApril30": 56,
      "violenceDominantDays": 11,
      "dominantCounts": "D:53 C:13 I:11",
      "meanSeverity": 0.607,
      "march9Severity": 0.639885729,
      "march10Severity": 0.779067473,
      "highOrWorseDays": 49
    },
    {
      "label": "Deprivation ceiling 45",
      "bounds": {
        "bI": 10,
        "bP": 6,
        "bL": 15,
        "bT": 18,
        "bTf": -10,
        "bD": 45
      },
      "p": 6,
      "crossings": {
        "0.40": "2022-03-05",
        "0.55": "2022-03-10",
        "0.70": "2022-04-14"
      },
      "daysFromFirstHighToApril30": 51,
      "violenceDominantDays": 2,
      "dominantCounts": "D:56 C:19 R:2",
      "meanSeverity": 0.636,
      "march9Severity": 0.526432945,
      "march10Severity": 0.623877267,
      "highOrWorseDays": 55
    },
    {
      "label": "Deprivation ceiling 90",
      "bounds": {
        "bI": 10,
        "bP": 6,
        "bL": 15,
        "bT": 18,
        "bTf": -10,
        "bD": 90
      },
      "p": 6,
      "crossings": {
        "0.40": "2022-03-05",
        "0.55": "2022-03-10",
        "0.70": null
      },
      "daysFromFirstHighToApril30": 51,
      "violenceDominantDays": 9,
      "dominantCounts": "D:42 C:26 R:9",
      "meanSeverity": 0.476,
      "march9Severity": 0.526423362,
      "march10Severity": 0.623868134,
      "highOrWorseDays": 21
    },
    {
      "label": "Exponent 2",
      "bounds": {
        "bI": 10,
        "bP": 6,
        "bL": 15,
        "bT": 18,
        "bTf": -10,
        "bD": 60
      },
      "p": 2,
      "crossings": {
        "0.40": "2022-03-09",
        "0.55": null,
        "0.70": null
      },
      "daysFromFirstHighToApril30": null,
      "violenceDominantDays": 2,
      "dominantCounts": "D:53 C:22 R:2",
      "meanSeverity": 0.424,
      "march9Severity": 0.405876714,
      "march10Severity": 0.521397455,
      "highOrWorseDays": 0
    },
    {
      "label": "Exponent 4",
      "bounds": {
        "bI": 10,
        "bP": 6,
        "bL": 15,
        "bT": 18,
        "bTf": -10,
        "bD": 60
      },
      "p": 4,
      "crossings": {
        "0.40": "2022-03-05",
        "0.55": "2022-03-10",
        "0.70": null
      },
      "daysFromFirstHighToApril30": 51,
      "violenceDominantDays": 2,
      "dominantCounts": "D:53 C:22 R:2",
      "meanSeverity": 0.522,
      "march9Severity": 0.47917846,
      "march10Severity": 0.589894168,
      "highOrWorseDays": 34
    },
    {
      "label": "Intensity 4.8; deprivation 90; exponent 2",
      "bounds": {
        "bI": 4.8,
        "bP": 6,
        "bL": 15,
        "bT": 18,
        "bTf": -10,
        "bD": 90
      },
      "p": 2,
      "crossings": {
        "0.40": "2022-03-05",
        "0.55": "2022-03-10",
        "0.70": null
      },
      "daysFromFirstHighToApril30": 51,
      "violenceDominantDays": 18,
      "dominantCounts": "D:42 I:18 C:17",
      "meanSeverity": 0.41,
      "march9Severity": 0.498148231,
      "march10Severity": 0.631249461,
      "highOrWorseDays": 6
    }
  ],
  "upstreamConsoleOutput": [
    "label|violence-dominant days|dominant-component counts|first Critical (>=0.70)|mean sev",
    "BASELINE (bI=10, bD=60, p=6) | 2/77 | D:53 C:22 R:2 | 2022-04-28 | 0.583",
    "bI=4.8 (observed max) | 11/77 | D:53 C:13 I:11 | 2022-03-10 | 0.607",
    "bD=45 | 2/77 | D:56 C:19 R:2 | 2022-04-14 | 0.636",
    "bD=60 | 2/77 | D:53 C:22 R:2 | 2022-04-28 | 0.583",
    "bD=90 | 9/77 | D:42 C:26 R:9 | never | 0.476",
    "p=2 | 2/77 | D:53 C:22 R:2 | never | 0.424",
    "p=4 | 2/77 | D:53 C:22 R:2 | never | 0.522",
    "p=6 | 2/77 | D:53 C:22 R:2 | 2022-04-28 | 0.583",
    "bI=4.8 & bD=90 & p=2 | 18/77 | D:42 I:18 C:17 | never | 0.410",
    "bI=4.8 & bD=90 & p=6 | 18/77 | D:42 I:18 C:17 | 2022-03-10 | 0.505",
    "\n--- band crossings (baseline) ---",
    "first sev >= 0.4: 2022-03-05 (day 0)",
    "first sev >= 0.55: 2022-03-10 (day 5)",
    "first sev >= 0.7: 2022-04-28 (day 54)",
    "max sev 0.743",
    "\n--- intensity component I: baseline vs observed-max ---",
    "bI=10  max I = 0.480",
    "bI=4.8 max I = 1.000"
  ]
}