{
  "notes": {
    "scope": "Staffed investor-funded startup finance for AI Commons; distinct from the existing individual-agent operating model.",
    "units": "Projection and result cash fields are integer USD cents; config monetary inputs are USD.",
    "method": "10,000 design trials across ten profiles; 4,000 independent-seed holdout trials across two selected profiles. Triangular member-scale, correlated cost and churn-rate assumptions, plus uniform additional launch delay.",
    "memberProtection": "Charge fees only when the minimum launch cohort and a minimum $0.50 monthly saving after fees are satisfied. Price comparison assumes equivalent AI service and an existing-provider procurement case; it is not proof of nonmonetary welfare or general migration safety.",
    "investorBoundary": "Capital funds losses and reserves, not revenue or guaranteed growth. No debt service, taxes, investor required return or legally approved repayment is modeled.",
    "baselineDiagnosis": {
      "originalSavedRunChecksum": "4248275e8c798890",
      "exactlyReplayed": true,
      "initialPayingMembers": 229,
      "feeUsd": 4,
      "covenantFraction": 0.2,
      "retainedFeesPerPeriodUsd": 732.8,
      "operatingCostPerPeriodUsd": 3500,
      "fundingStopTick": 90,
      "endingOperatorArrearsUsd": 3500,
      "minimumPayingMembersForOriginalCost": 1094,
      "eligibleConsumers": 1000,
      "aggregatePurchasingCostDisadvantageUsd": 2116.8
    }
  },
  "results": [
    {
      "id": "member-value-first",
      "configuration": {
        "version": 1,
        "seed": "startup-holdout-v1",
        "params": {
          "capitalEnabled": 1,
          "capitalUsd": 6500000,
          "horizon": 60,
          "breakEvenTarget": 36,
          "reserveMonths": 3,
          "contingencyBps": 1500,
          "startingMembers": 0,
          "targetMembers": 150000,
          "rampMonths": 24,
          "rampExponent": 1.6,
          "launchDelay": 0,
          "minimumLaunchMembers": 600,
          "monthlyChurn": 0.015,
          "feeUsd": 2.5,
          "covenantBps": 2000,
          "retailUsd": 20,
          "providerVariableUsd": 14,
          "providerSetupUsd": 200,
          "providerMarkupBps": 1500,
          "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5,
          "staffStart": 3,
          "staffTarget": 10,
          "staffRampMonths": 24,
          "annualStaffUsd": 120000,
          "hiringUsd": 5000,
          "setupUsd": 100000,
          "marketingStartUsd": 3000,
          "marketingTargetUsd": 15000,
          "acquisitionUsd": 15,
          "onboardingUsd": 5,
          "supportUsd": 0.25,
          "travelStartUsd": 1000,
          "travelTargetUsd": 5000,
          "eventUsd": 15000,
          "eventEveryMonths": 3,
          "technologyStartUsd": 2000,
          "technologyTargetUsd": 10000,
          "legalStartUsd": 2000,
          "legalTargetUsd": 6000,
          "adminStartUsd": 1000,
          "adminTargetUsd": 5000,
          "growthUncertainty": 0.25,
          "costUncertainty": 0.15,
          "churnUncertainty": 0.3,
          "delayUncertainty": 6
        }
      },
      "baselineSummary": {
        "capital": 650000000,
        "capitalRequired": 475409857,
        "capitalForNoShortfall": 345737875,
        "capitalWithReserve": 413399875,
        "reserveAddon": 67662000,
        "contingency": 62009982,
        "firstShortfallMonth": null,
        "funded": true,
        "meetsReserveAndContingency": true,
        "operatingBreakEvenMonth": 25,
        "runRateBreakEvenMonth": 14,
        "cumulativeBreakEvenMonth": null,
        "potentialCapitalRepaymentMonth": null,
        "runRateMembersNeeded": 100690,
        "lastMembers": 150000,
        "lastStaff": 10,
        "lastMonthlyProfit": 6150000,
        "endingCash": 591662125,
        "minimumPlannedCash": 304262125,
        "minimumMemberSaving": 115,
        "matureCashHealthy": true,
        "meetsBreakEvenTarget": true,
        "memberPriceProtected": true,
        "totalFees": 1715108750,
        "totalUses": 1773446625
      },
      "baselineBudgetToBreakEven": {
        "throughMonth": 25,
        "uses": {
          "setup": 10000000,
          "payroll": 155000000,
          "hiring": 5000000,
          "fixedMarketing": 23100000,
          "acquisition": 257860500,
          "onboarding": 85953500,
          "support": 40260875,
          "travel": 7700000,
          "events": 12000000,
          "technology": 15400000,
          "legal": 10200000,
          "administration": 7700000,
          "commons": 80521750
        },
        "grossFees": 402608750,
        "totalUses": 710696625,
        "netFundingConsumed": 308087875,
        "peakCashDeficit": 345737875,
        "note": "Uses include fee-financed commons transfers. Investor capital bridges the net cash gap; it is not the only source paying these costs."
      },
      "experiment": {
        "format": "ccsl-startup-monte-carlo",
        "version": 1,
        "methodVersion": "1.0.0",
        "config": {
          "version": 1,
          "seed": "startup-holdout-v1",
          "params": {
            "capitalEnabled": 1,
            "capitalUsd": 6500000,
            "horizon": 60,
            "breakEvenTarget": 36,
            "reserveMonths": 3,
            "contingencyBps": 1500,
            "startingMembers": 0,
            "targetMembers": 150000,
            "rampMonths": 24,
            "rampExponent": 1.6,
            "launchDelay": 0,
            "minimumLaunchMembers": 600,
            "monthlyChurn": 0.015,
            "feeUsd": 2.5,
            "covenantBps": 2000,
            "retailUsd": 20,
            "providerVariableUsd": 14,
            "providerSetupUsd": 200,
            "providerMarkupBps": 1500,
            "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5,
            "staffStart": 3,
            "staffTarget": 10,
            "staffRampMonths": 24,
            "annualStaffUsd": 120000,
            "hiringUsd": 5000,
            "setupUsd": 100000,
            "marketingStartUsd": 3000,
            "marketingTargetUsd": 15000,
            "acquisitionUsd": 15,
            "onboardingUsd": 5,
            "supportUsd": 0.25,
            "travelStartUsd": 1000,
            "travelTargetUsd": 5000,
            "eventUsd": 15000,
            "eventEveryMonths": 3,
            "technologyStartUsd": 2000,
            "technologyTargetUsd": 10000,
            "legalStartUsd": 2000,
            "legalTargetUsd": 6000,
            "adminStartUsd": 1000,
            "adminTargetUsd": 5000,
            "growthUncertainty": 0.25,
            "costUncertainty": 0.15,
            "churnUncertainty": 0.3,
            "delayUncertainty": 6
          }
        },
        "trials": 2000,
        "successful": 1924,
        "conditionalSuccessShare": 0.962,
        "funded": 2000,
        "meetingTarget": 1983,
        "neverCashBreakEven": 17,
        "requiredCapital": {
          "p05": 424344841.1,
          "median": 524290594.5,
          "p90": 609084185.7,
          "p95": 630842464.25,
          "max": 735569851
        },
        "breakEvenMonths": {
          "p05": 25,
          "median": 28,
          "p95": 31,
          "count": 1983
        },
        "notice": "Shares describe declared triangular input assumptions and uniform launch-delay stress, not empirical success probabilities. Capital on/off does not alter the member ramp or spending plan; unfunded projected activity is not executed activity."
      },
      "monteCarloInterval": {
        "lower": 0.9526962482408641,
        "upper": 0.969532400071258,
        "meaning": "95% Monte Carlo sampling interval conditional on declared input distributions; not a real-world investment confidence interval."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "balanced",
      "configuration": {
        "version": 1,
        "seed": "startup-holdout-v1",
        "params": {
          "capitalEnabled": 1,
          "capitalUsd": 6000000,
          "horizon": 60,
          "breakEvenTarget": 36,
          "reserveMonths": 3,
          "contingencyBps": 1500,
          "startingMembers": 0,
          "targetMembers": 150000,
          "rampMonths": 24,
          "rampExponent": 1.6,
          "launchDelay": 0,
          "minimumLaunchMembers": 600,
          "monthlyChurn": 0.015,
          "feeUsd": 3,
          "covenantBps": 2000,
          "retailUsd": 20,
          "providerVariableUsd": 14,
          "providerSetupUsd": 200,
          "providerMarkupBps": 1500,
          "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5,
          "staffStart": 3,
          "staffTarget": 10,
          "staffRampMonths": 24,
          "annualStaffUsd": 120000,
          "hiringUsd": 5000,
          "setupUsd": 100000,
          "marketingStartUsd": 3000,
          "marketingTargetUsd": 15000,
          "acquisitionUsd": 15,
          "onboardingUsd": 5,
          "supportUsd": 0.25,
          "travelStartUsd": 1000,
          "travelTargetUsd": 5000,
          "eventUsd": 15000,
          "eventEveryMonths": 3,
          "technologyStartUsd": 2000,
          "technologyTargetUsd": 10000,
          "legalStartUsd": 2000,
          "legalTargetUsd": 6000,
          "adminStartUsd": 1000,
          "adminTargetUsd": 5000,
          "growthUncertainty": 0.25,
          "costUncertainty": 0.15,
          "churnUncertainty": 0.3,
          "delayUncertainty": 6
        }
      },
      "baselineSummary": {
        "capital": 600000000,
        "capitalRequired": 415129847,
        "capitalForNoShortfall": 293320475,
        "capitalWithReserve": 360982475,
        "reserveAddon": 67662000,
        "contingency": 54147372,
        "firstShortfallMonth": null,
        "funded": true,
        "meetsReserveAndContingency": true,
        "operatingBreakEvenMonth": 25,
        "runRateBreakEvenMonth": 12,
        "cumulativeBreakEvenMonth": 44,
        "potentialCapitalRepaymentMonth": 49,
        "runRateMembersNeeded": 78919,
        "lastMembers": 150000,
        "lastStaff": 10,
        "lastMonthlyProfit": 12150000,
        "endingCash": 816079525,
        "minimumPlannedCash": 306679525,
        "minimumMemberSaving": 65,
        "matureCashHealthy": true,
        "meetsBreakEvenTarget": true,
        "memberPriceProtected": true,
        "totalFees": 2058130500,
        "totalUses": 1842050975
      },
      "baselineBudgetToBreakEven": {
        "throughMonth": 25,
        "uses": {
          "setup": 10000000,
          "payroll": 155000000,
          "hiring": 5000000,
          "fixedMarketing": 23100000,
          "acquisition": 257860500,
          "onboarding": 85953500,
          "support": 40260875,
          "travel": 7700000,
          "events": 12000000,
          "technology": 15400000,
          "legal": 10200000,
          "administration": 7700000,
          "commons": 96626100
        },
        "grossFees": 483130500,
        "totalUses": 726800975,
        "netFundingConsumed": 243670475,
        "peakCashDeficit": 293320475,
        "note": "Uses include fee-financed commons transfers. Investor capital bridges the net cash gap; it is not the only source paying these costs."
      },
      "experiment": {
        "format": "ccsl-startup-monte-carlo",
        "version": 1,
        "methodVersion": "1.0.0",
        "config": {
          "version": 1,
          "seed": "startup-holdout-v1",
          "params": {
            "capitalEnabled": 1,
            "capitalUsd": 6000000,
            "horizon": 60,
            "breakEvenTarget": 36,
            "reserveMonths": 3,
            "contingencyBps": 1500,
            "startingMembers": 0,
            "targetMembers": 150000,
            "rampMonths": 24,
            "rampExponent": 1.6,
            "launchDelay": 0,
            "minimumLaunchMembers": 600,
            "monthlyChurn": 0.015,
            "feeUsd": 3,
            "covenantBps": 2000,
            "retailUsd": 20,
            "providerVariableUsd": 14,
            "providerSetupUsd": 200,
            "providerMarkupBps": 1500,
            "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5,
            "staffStart": 3,
            "staffTarget": 10,
            "staffRampMonths": 24,
            "annualStaffUsd": 120000,
            "hiringUsd": 5000,
            "setupUsd": 100000,
            "marketingStartUsd": 3000,
            "marketingTargetUsd": 15000,
            "acquisitionUsd": 15,
            "onboardingUsd": 5,
            "supportUsd": 0.25,
            "travelStartUsd": 1000,
            "travelTargetUsd": 5000,
            "eventUsd": 15000,
            "eventEveryMonths": 3,
            "technologyStartUsd": 2000,
            "technologyTargetUsd": 10000,
            "legalStartUsd": 2000,
            "legalTargetUsd": 6000,
            "adminStartUsd": 1000,
            "adminTargetUsd": 5000,
            "growthUncertainty": 0.25,
            "costUncertainty": 0.15,
            "churnUncertainty": 0.3,
            "delayUncertainty": 6
          }
        },
        "trials": 2000,
        "successful": 1963,
        "conditionalSuccessShare": 0.9815,
        "funded": 2000,
        "meetingTarget": 2000,
        "neverCashBreakEven": 0,
        "requiredCapital": {
          "p05": 366858006.6,
          "median": 463766511,
          "p90": 546591196,
          "p95": 568469835.5,
          "max": 672446213
        },
        "breakEvenMonths": {
          "p05": 25,
          "median": 28,
          "p95": 31,
          "count": 2000
        },
        "notice": "Shares describe declared triangular input assumptions and uniform launch-delay stress, not empirical success probabilities. Capital on/off does not alter the member ramp or spending plan; unfunded projected activity is not executed activity."
      },
      "monteCarloInterval": {
        "lower": 0.9746052332822633,
        "upper": 0.9865486501858901,
        "meaning": "95% Monte Carlo sampling interval conditional on declared input distributions; not a real-world investment confidence interval."
      }
    }
  ]
}