{
  "format": "commons-startup-trial-manifest",
  "version": 1,
  "studyId": "viability-2026-09-20",
  "methodVersion": "1.0.0",
  "generation": {
    "command": "node scripts/analyze-startup.mjs",
    "method": "projectStartup(configuration, { uncertain: true, replication }) once for every declared phase, profile and replication; summarizeStartupTrials recomputed from persisted JSONL before publishing.",
    "runtime": {
      "node": "v24.14.0",
      "zlib": "1.3.1-e00f703"
    },
    "compression": "node:zlib gzipSync, level 9, zero timestamp; UTF-8 JSON Lines with LF and a final newline.",
    "recordKind": "Per-trial startup-cohort financial summaries, not full transaction/event traces or operating-agent runs. The raw trial archive excludes monthly trajectories. Three nominal plans include monthly rows as separate artifacts, not additional sampled trials.",
    "sourceNormalization": "Remove optional UTF-8 BOM; normalize CRLF and CR to LF before SHA-256.",
    "sources": [
      {
        "file": "simulation/startup.mjs",
        "sha256": "0b1f8222e41d02b4daf74dadc458dc47fe44e93eecd3e792a4cb9e3cc15b7415"
      },
      {
        "file": "simulation/math.mjs",
        "sha256": "719a1089cd260a2bd9b4b5b1c97239f8687320ba5ba4c592acab7e355d111454"
      },
      {
        "file": "scripts/analyze-startup.mjs",
        "sha256": "39d94ecf5737fb72eb44f809c27ef66beb6a1e36c883fe0b1eeceaf0f55ca823"
      }
    ]
  },
  "seedScheme": {
    "generator": "Counter-keyed xoshiro128** in simulation/math.mjs; deterministic pseudorandom draws, not a security generator.",
    "draw": "random(configuration.seed, `startup:${replication}:${factor}`)",
    "factors": [
      "growth",
      "cost",
      "churn",
      "delay"
    ],
    "replicationIndex": "Zero-based within each phase/profile.",
    "designSeed": "startup-design-v1",
    "holdoutSeed": "startup-holdout-v1",
    "comparison": "Profiles within a phase reuse the same replication keys and seed (common random numbers). Profiles are paired assumptions, not independent observations. Holdout uses a separate seed, not new human or market observations."
  },
  "assumptions": {
    "growth": "Symmetric triangular multiplier centered on 1 with width growthUncertainty.",
    "cost": "Symmetric triangular multiplier centered on 1 with width costUncertainty, shared across modeled operating costs.",
    "churn": "Symmetric triangular multiplier centered on 1 with width churnUncertainty.",
    "delay": "launchDelay plus a discrete uniform integer from 0 through delayUncertainty, inclusive.",
    "goal": "funded && meetsReserveAndContingency && meetsBreakEvenTarget && memberPriceProtected",
    "capitalQuantiles": "Linear interpolation of sorted integer USD cents at index (n - 1) * p; quantiles may be fractional cents.",
    "breakEven": "First start of six consecutive months with nonnegative operating cash profit; target also requires nonnegative cash profit in the final six months.",
    "selection": "Only member-value-first and balanced were carried from design into holdout. This is not validation of all ten profiles or an independently preregistered selection.",
    "limits": "Synthetic, uncalibrated assumptions; not empirical success probabilities, independent human observations, a causal capital effect, or investment forecasts. Capital does not change the planned member ramp or spending. Equivalent service and no member-paid switching costs are assumed. Taxes, debt service and investor return requirements are excluded."
  },
  "phases": [
    {
      "id": "design",
      "seed": "startup-design-v1",
      "profileCount": 10,
      "replicationsPerProfile": 1000,
      "planned": 10000,
      "completed": 10000,
      "missing": 0,
      "failed": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "profiles": [
        {
          "id": "member-value-first",
          "records": 1000
        },
        {
          "id": "balanced",
          "records": 1000
        },
        {
          "id": "higher-fee",
          "records": 1000
        },
        {
          "id": "slower-ramp",
          "records": 1000
        },
        {
          "id": "lower-scale",
          "records": 1000
        },
        {
          "id": "higher-acquisition-cost",
          "records": 1000
        },
        {
          "id": "lower-acquisition-cost",
          "records": 1000
        },
        {
          "id": "higher-staff-cost",
          "records": 1000
        },
        {
          "id": "lower-staff-cost",
          "records": 1000
        },
        {
          "id": "faster-ramp",
          "records": 1000
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "holdout",
      "seed": "startup-holdout-v1",
      "profileCount": 2,
      "replicationsPerProfile": 2000,
      "planned": 4000,
      "completed": 4000,
      "missing": 0,
      "failed": 0,
      "excluded": 0,
      "profiles": [
        {
          "id": "member-value-first",
          "records": 2000
        },
        {
          "id": "balanced",
          "records": 2000
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "records": {
    "planned": 14000,
    "completed": 14000,
    "missing": 0,
    "failed": 0,
    "excluded": 0,
    "failurePolicy": "Abort generation on any projection or serialization error; retain unfavorable outcomes and null break-even results. No imputation or silent exclusions."
  },
  "recordSchema": {
    "phase": "design or holdout",
    "profile": "Profile ID in startup-trial-inputs.json",
    "replication": "Zero-based replication index",
    "status": "completed",
    "seedReference": "Base seed and counter key prefix; append growth, cost, churn or delay.",
    "projectionId": "Model identifier from config and factors, not a cryptographic provenance hash.",
    "factors": "Realized growth, cost and churn multipliers plus total delay in months.",
    "summary": "All projection summary financial outputs and Boolean outcome flags. Money is integer USD cents; months and member/staff counts are unscaled. Null month means not reached in the configured horizon.",
    "flags": "goalsMet is the conjunction defined in assumptions.goal."
  },
  "artifacts": [
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      "file": "startup-design-results.json",
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  "raw": {
    "file": "startup-trials.jsonl.gz",
    "bytes": 1825421,
    "sha256": "16b5c38541cf3fe6fd05eb09dd4612a723b63c3c6dcc56f0606034a2664f2b81",
    "decompressed": {
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    "records": 14000
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}