{ "format": "commons-trial-evidence", "version": 1, "studyId": "viability-2026-09-20", "methodVersion": "1.0.0", "manifestSha256": "d54bb541ad85195bfe7b2953260e0b3183d4b283632fbfc7064d9815c925942d", "records": { "planned": 14000, "completed": 14000, "missing": 0, "failed": 0, "excluded": 0, "failurePolicy": "Abort generation on any projection or serialization error; retain unfavorable outcomes and null break-even results. 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Capital on/off does not alter the member ramp or spending plan; unfunded projected activity is not executed activity.", "goalsNotMet": 177, "reserveAndContingency": 860, "memberPriceProtected": 1000, "capitalHistogram": { "widthCents": 100000000, "count": 1000, "bins": [ { "lowerCents": 300000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 400000000, "count": 43 }, { "lowerCents": 400000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 500000000, "count": 369 }, { "lowerCents": 500000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 600000000, "count": 448 }, { "lowerCents": 600000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 700000000, "count": 135 }, { "lowerCents": 700000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 800000000, "count": 5 } ] } }, { "id": "lower-scale", "name": "Lower member scale", "patch": { "targetMembers": 100000 }, "configuration": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 100000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 120000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 15, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "format": "ccsl-startup-monte-carlo", "version": 1, "methodVersion": "1.0.0", "config": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 100000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 120000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 15, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "trials": 1000, "successful": 892, "conditionalSuccessShare": 0.892, "funded": 1000, "meetingTarget": 892, "neverCashBreakEven": 108, "requiredCapital": { "p05": 344784669.15, "median": 430548319.5, "p90": 509503950.5, "p95": 532550966.9, "max": 633209516 }, "breakEvenMonths": { "p05": 25, "median": 28, "p95": 31, "count": 892 }, "notice": "Shares describe declared triangular input assumptions and uniform launch-delay stress, not empirical success probabilities. Capital on/off does not alter the member ramp or spending plan; unfunded projected activity is not executed activity.", "goalsNotMet": 108, "reserveAndContingency": 998, "memberPriceProtected": 1000, "capitalHistogram": { "widthCents": 100000000, "count": 1000, "bins": [ { "lowerCents": 200000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 300000000, "count": 2 }, { "lowerCents": 300000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 400000000, "count": 289 }, { "lowerCents": 400000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 500000000, "count": 586 }, { "lowerCents": 500000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 600000000, "count": 121 }, { "lowerCents": 600000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 700000000, "count": 2 } ] } }, { "id": "higher-acquisition-cost", "name": "Higher acquisition cost", "patch": { "acquisitionUsd": 30 }, "configuration": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 120000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 30, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "format": "ccsl-startup-monte-carlo", "version": 1, "methodVersion": "1.0.0", "config": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 120000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 30, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "trials": 1000, "successful": 20, "conditionalSuccessShare": 0.02, "funded": 575, "meetingTarget": 999, "neverCashBreakEven": 1, "requiredCapital": { "p05": 629800977.4, "median": 763796633.5, "p90": 879347193, "p95": 915197981.15, "max": 1024866873 }, "breakEvenMonths": { "p05": 25, "median": 28, "p95": 31, "count": 999 }, "notice": "Shares describe declared triangular input assumptions and uniform launch-delay stress, not empirical success probabilities. Capital on/off does not alter the member ramp or spending plan; unfunded projected activity is not executed activity.", "goalsNotMet": 980, "reserveAndContingency": 20, "memberPriceProtected": 1000, "capitalHistogram": { "widthCents": 100000000, "count": 1000, "bins": [ { "lowerCents": 500000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 600000000, "count": 20 }, { "lowerCents": 600000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 700000000, "count": 206 }, { "lowerCents": 700000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 800000000, "count": 430 }, { "lowerCents": 800000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 900000000, "count": 265 }, { "lowerCents": 900000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 1000000000, "count": 77 }, { "lowerCents": 1000000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 1100000000, "count": 2 } ] } }, { "id": "lower-acquisition-cost", "name": "Lower acquisition cost", "patch": { "acquisitionUsd": 8 }, "configuration": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 120000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 8, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "format": "ccsl-startup-monte-carlo", "version": 1, "methodVersion": "1.0.0", "config": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 120000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 8, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "trials": 1000, "successful": 1000, "conditionalSuccessShare": 1, "funded": 1000, "meetingTarget": 1000, "neverCashBreakEven": 0, "requiredCapital": { "p05": 238383745.95, "median": 320352093, "p90": 394657767.8, "p95": 414980889.54999995, "max": 479372780 }, "breakEvenMonths": { "p05": 22, "median": 26, "p95": 30, "count": 1000 }, "notice": "Shares describe declared triangular input assumptions and uniform launch-delay stress, not empirical success probabilities. Capital on/off does not alter the member ramp or spending plan; unfunded projected activity is not executed activity.", "goalsNotMet": 0, "reserveAndContingency": 1000, "memberPriceProtected": 1000, "capitalHistogram": { "widthCents": 100000000, "count": 1000, "bins": [ { "lowerCents": 100000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 200000000, "count": 6 }, { "lowerCents": 200000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 300000000, "count": 344 }, { "lowerCents": 300000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 400000000, "count": 561 }, { "lowerCents": 400000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 500000000, "count": 89 } ] } }, { "id": "higher-staff-cost", "name": "Higher staffing cost", "patch": { "annualStaffUsd": 150000 }, "configuration": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 150000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 15, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "format": "ccsl-startup-monte-carlo", "version": 1, "methodVersion": "1.0.0", "config": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 150000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 15, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "trials": 1000, "successful": 864, "conditionalSuccessShare": 0.864, "funded": 1000, "meetingTarget": 999, "neverCashBreakEven": 1, "requiredCapital": { "p05": 414778187.5, "median": 520528200.5, "p90": 611830941.3000001, "p95": 638131989.3, "max": 723368735 }, "breakEvenMonths": { "p05": 25, "median": 28, "p95": 31, "count": 999 }, "notice": "Shares describe declared triangular input assumptions and uniform launch-delay stress, not empirical success probabilities. Capital on/off does not alter the member ramp or spending plan; unfunded projected activity is not executed activity.", "goalsNotMet": 136, "reserveAndContingency": 864, "memberPriceProtected": 1000, "capitalHistogram": { "widthCents": 100000000, "count": 1000, "bins": [ { "lowerCents": 300000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 400000000, "count": 28 }, { "lowerCents": 400000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 500000000, "count": 358 }, { "lowerCents": 500000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 600000000, "count": 478 }, { "lowerCents": 600000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 700000000, "count": 133 }, { "lowerCents": 700000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 800000000, "count": 3 } ] } }, { "id": "lower-staff-cost", "name": "Lower staffing cost", "patch": { "annualStaffUsd": 100000 }, "configuration": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 100000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 15, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "format": "ccsl-startup-monte-carlo", "version": 1, "methodVersion": "1.0.0", "config": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 100000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 15, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "trials": 1000, "successful": 1000, "conditionalSuccessShare": 1, "funded": 1000, "meetingTarget": 1000, "neverCashBreakEven": 0, "requiredCapital": { "p05": 333445309.4, "median": 421820219.5, "p90": 500842528.6, "p95": 523179893.29999995, "max": 595707917 }, "breakEvenMonths": { "p05": 25, "median": 28, "p95": 31, "count": 1000 }, "notice": "Shares describe declared triangular input assumptions and uniform launch-delay stress, not empirical success probabilities. Capital on/off does not alter the member ramp or spending plan; unfunded projected activity is not executed activity.", "goalsNotMet": 0, "reserveAndContingency": 1000, "memberPriceProtected": 1000, "capitalHistogram": { "widthCents": 100000000, "count": 1000, "bins": [ { "lowerCents": 200000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 300000000, "count": 12 }, { "lowerCents": 300000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 400000000, "count": 339 }, { "lowerCents": 400000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 500000000, "count": 545 }, { "lowerCents": 500000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 600000000, "count": 104 } ] } }, { "id": "faster-ramp", "name": "Faster member ramp", "patch": { "rampMonths": 18, "breakEvenTarget": 30 }, "configuration": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 30, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 18, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 120000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 15, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "format": "ccsl-startup-monte-carlo", "version": 1, "methodVersion": "1.0.0", "config": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-design-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6000000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 30, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 18, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 3, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 120000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 15, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "trials": 1000, "successful": 999, "conditionalSuccessShare": 0.999, "funded": 1000, "meetingTarget": 1000, "neverCashBreakEven": 0, "requiredCapital": { "p05": 342504395.75, "median": 430481963.5, "p90": 509646820.7, "p95": 530909943.75, "max": 610977405 }, "breakEvenMonths": { "p05": 19, "median": 22, "p95": 25, "count": 1000 }, "notice": "Shares describe declared triangular input assumptions and uniform launch-delay stress, not empirical success probabilities. Capital on/off does not alter the member ramp or spending plan; unfunded projected activity is not executed activity.", "goalsNotMet": 1, "reserveAndContingency": 999, "memberPriceProtected": 1000, "capitalHistogram": { "widthCents": 100000000, "count": 1000, "bins": [ { "lowerCents": 200000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 300000000, "count": 6 }, { "lowerCents": 300000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 400000000, "count": 293 }, { "lowerCents": 400000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 500000000, "count": 567 }, { "lowerCents": 500000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 600000000, "count": 133 }, { "lowerCents": 600000000, "upperExclusiveCents": 700000000, "count": 1 } ] } } ] }, { "id": "holdout", "seed": "startup-holdout-v1", "profileCount": 2, "replicationsPerProfile": 2000, "planned": 4000, "completed": 4000, "missing": 0, "failed": 0, "excluded": 0, "profiles": [ { "id": "member-value-first", "name": "Member value first", "patch": { "feeUsd": 2.5, "capitalUsd": 6500000 }, "configuration": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-holdout-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6500000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 2.5, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 120000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 15, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "format": "ccsl-startup-monte-carlo", "version": 1, "methodVersion": "1.0.0", "config": { "version": 1, "seed": "startup-holdout-v1", "params": { "capitalEnabled": 1, "capitalUsd": 6500000, "horizon": 60, "breakEvenTarget": 36, "reserveMonths": 3, "contingencyBps": 1500, "startingMembers": 0, "targetMembers": 150000, "rampMonths": 24, "rampExponent": 1.6, "launchDelay": 0, "minimumLaunchMembers": 600, "monthlyChurn": 0.015, "feeUsd": 2.5, "covenantBps": 2000, "retailUsd": 20, "providerVariableUsd": 14, "providerSetupUsd": 200, "providerMarkupBps": 1500, "minimumSavingUsd": 0.5, "staffStart": 3, "staffTarget": 10, "staffRampMonths": 24, "annualStaffUsd": 120000, "hiringUsd": 5000, "setupUsd": 100000, "marketingStartUsd": 3000, "marketingTargetUsd": 15000, "acquisitionUsd": 15, "onboardingUsd": 5, "supportUsd": 0.25, "travelStartUsd": 1000, "travelTargetUsd": 5000, "eventUsd": 15000, "eventEveryMonths": 3, "technologyStartUsd": 2000, "technologyTargetUsd": 10000, "legalStartUsd": 2000, "legalTargetUsd": 6000, "adminStartUsd": 1000, "adminTargetUsd": 5000, "growthUncertainty": 0.25, "costUncertainty": 0.15, "churnUncertainty": 0.3, "delayUncertainty": 6 } }, "trials": 2000, "successful": 1924, "conditionalSuccessShare": 0.962, "funded": 2000, "meetingTarget": 1983, "neverCashBreakEven": 17, "requiredCapital": { "p05": 424344841.1, "median": 524290594.5, "p90": 609084185.7, "p95": 630842464.25, "max": 735569851 }, "breakEvenMonths": { "p05": 25, "median": 28, "p95": 31, "count": 1983 }, "notice": "Shares describe declared triangular input assumptions and uniform launch-delay stress, not empirical success probabilities. 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