Forced Labor Structural Risk Index
Forced labor is a crime. It takes root in measurable conditions. This index maps where.
Forced labor is largely hidden: in informal work, across borders, and behind opaque finance. The conditions that allow it to take root, however, are observable, and they vary considerably from one country to the next. This index maps those conditions across 184 countries, measuring the structural environment that enables forced labor rather than estimating its prevalence.
184 countries on a 0–1 structural-risk scale. This is a small preview; the full, interactive map lives on Explore →
See the data
Map
Explore
The country risk map, with the sub-national hotspot layer and the labor-flow corridors beneath it.
Open the map →Ranked
Rankings
All 184 scored countries, sortable, with the not-scored cases shown openly.
See rankings →Per country
Country profiles
One country’s phase and domain breakdown, its radar, and the research behind each domain.
Browse profiles →What-if
Simulation
Move a country’s domains, weights, or operator and watch its score and rank recompute live.
Run a simulation →Sources
Indicators & sources
Every indicator, its data source and coverage, and the documented gaps.
See the data →What this measures
The index reads a country through a structural lens. It scores the conditions that enable forced labor rather than its prevalence. A high score indicates that those enabling conditions are strongly present, not that a specified number of people are exploited. The composite combines the two phase components forced labor requires:
The two are combined with a geometric mean, so a country scores high only when both are present. A low value on either side pulls the whole score down. How the index works · Methodology & limits
Walk the phases
The index follows how forced labor operates as a system, from the conditions that expose people to recruitment, to the conditions under which exploitation runs unchecked. The published score combines the first two phases (Recruitment × Exploitation). The third, Monetization, is a separate lens and does not enter the scored composite. Each domain lists representative indicators. Where no defensible global data source exists, the condition is carried openly as a gap.
Phase 1: Recruitment (8 domains)
Where people are made vulnerable to recruitment into forced labor: poverty, debt, blocked mobility, exclusion, and shocks.
Poverty headcount ($6.85/day), informal-employment share, agrarian-employment concentration, income volatility.
Financial-account exclusion, borrowing prevalence, informal-source borrowing (World Bank Global Findex).
Passport access (Henley), freedom of movement (V-Dem), refugee & asylum-seeker outflow (UNHCR). low confidence: kafala & brokerage drivers unsourced.
Politically-excluded-population share (Ethnic Power Relations). low confidence: one signal for a four-axis driver.
Birth-registration incompleteness (SDG 16.9.1), statelessness prevalence (UNHCR).
Gender Inequality Index (UNDP), labor-force-participation gap, legal mobility constraint, sex-by-sector employment channelling.
Child-cohort share, child-labor pool, child-marriage rate, out-of-school rate (WDI / UNICEF SDG).
Disaster mortality & affected share (EM-DAT), conflict intensity (UCDP GED), climate vulnerability (ND-GAIN).
Phase 2: Exploitation (3 domains)
Where, once recruited, exploitation can run unchecked: foreclosed exit, demand-side economic structure, and the state’s own production of unfreedom.
Collective-bargaining coverage & union density, labor-inspection capacity (ILOSTAT). low confidence: the monopsony exit-cost spine is unsourceable at 195-country scale.
Hazardous-sector employment share, informal-employment share (ILOSTAT/WDI), export concentration (UNCTAD). low confidence: buyer concentration & criminal-market embedding unsourced.
Forced-labor & clientelism indices (V-Dem). low confidence: tied-status, deportability & protective-floor legal coding are hard gaps.
Phase 3: Monetization (2 domains), a separate lens, not in the score
FATF Mutual-Evaluation effectiveness & listing flag, Financial Secrecy Index (via Basel AML Index), bribery risk (TRACE).
Financial-account exclusion (Findex), shadow-economy size (World Bank Informal Economy Database).
Risk concentrates where governance is weak. We report that openly, because weak governance is itself a core driver. But a pre-registered test confirms a forced-labor-specific signal survives once governance is held constant. See the validation.
This index measures the structural conditions associated with forced labor, not its prevalence. It is intended to be read alongside on-the-ground knowledge, not in place of it. Methodology & limits · Intervention