The severity axis of a three-axis evacuation decision matrix (Severity × Feasibility × Destination viability), computed for each day of the siege window, 5 March – 20 May 2022, from ACLED event data, ERA5-referenced temperature, the documented corridor record, and WorldPop demographics. Select a date in §2 to generate the situation assessment in force that day.
Fig. 2 — Evacuation corridors from Mariupol, March–May 2022. Hatched area: territory under Russian control (approximate, mid-March); dashed line: approximate front line. The corridor corresponding to the regime selected in §1 is emphasised, and the inset reports the composite severity for the selected date with its component contributors; the encirclement ring around Mariupol is coloured and scaled by severity. Westbound movement to Zaporizhzhia crossed Russian-held territory and checkpoints between Manhush and Vasylivka; the eastbound route into Russian-controlled territory via Bezimenne filtration operated in parallel throughout all phases, and during the UN/ICRC operation some evacuees proceeded to Russian-controlled areas rather than Zaporizhzhia. Schematic — positions approximate.
Retrospective research prototype. Kinetic variables derive from the author's ACLED extraction for Mariupol raion, held constant within documented phases; the temperature series is an interpolated climatology pending full ERA5 extraction; the corridor record and parties' conduct follow OCHA and OHCHR reporting; front line and controlled areas in Fig. 1 are approximate. Not operational guidance.