Publications · Academic reports

The research, written up.

Each research question the CoLab takes on is being written up as an academic report. Titles are working drafts; links go live here as each report is published.

01 / Evacuation

In preparation

AI-Informed Evacuation Decision-Making Under Crisis Constraints

How can AI inform evacuation decisions?

A write-up of the evacuation-risk models, information index, and behavioral simulations, and what they imply for who reaches safety.

Academic report — coming soon

02 / Cultural heritage

In preparation

Verifiable Provenance for the Ethical Return of Cultural Artifacts

How can technology support the ethical return of cultural artifacts?

A report on pairing verifiable credentials with grounded, cited provenance to support repatriation, attribution, and ethical stewardship.

Academic report — coming soon

03 / Traceability

In preparation

Making Ethical Supply-Chain Claims Verifiable

How can ethical claims in supply chains be made verifiable?

A report on structural forced-labor risk and interoperable trace records that let buyers and regulators verify claims without exposing supplier data.

Academic report — coming soon

04 / Diplomacy

● Published

Rehearsing High-Stakes Diplomacy with Culturally Grounded AI Agents

How can AI help practitioners rehearse high-stakes diplomacy?

A report on AI-mediated environments where negotiators rehearse against agents that model historical context, incentives, and red lines.

05 / Sustainability

● Published

AI's Carbon Footprint: The Environmental Impact of AI

May 2025

How large is AI's environmental footprint — and how can it be reduced?

A CoLab report on AI's energy use across training and inference, the data-center and hardware toll, and the mitigation strategies, regulations, and policies that could bend the curve.

06 / Research

● Published

AI-Powered Assistance in Formulating Research Questions

October 2025

How can AI help researchers formulate rigorous research questions?

A survey of how AI supports researchers across the question-formulation workflow — finding gaps, generating candidate questions, summarizing the state of the art, and flagging contradictions — with guardrails against hallucinated citations and a red-team verification model. Ships with a reusable Copilot 'Researcher' prompt and a journal-credibility rubric.

07 / Evacuation

● Published

The Evacuation Inform Index: Weighing the Risk of Leaving Against the Risk of Staying

July 2026

Is leaving actually safer than staying, and how would anyone know?

A plain-language report on a decision support prototype that scores 104 active crises on two risks at once, keeping danger and feasibility deliberately apart so that operational difficulty cannot quietly cancel out a legal obligation. Prepared as masters research at the NYU Center for Global Affairs.

08 / Evacuation

● Published

The Civilian Evacuation Risk Anticipation Index: A Decision-Support Tool for Protecting Civilians During Evacuations in Armed Conflict

2026

How dangerous is it to stay, and is leaving actually possible?

A plain-language report on a prototype that keeps two questions apart: how dangerous it is for civilians to remain, and whether an organised evacuation is possible at all. Separating them matters legally, because the duty to protect arises from danger, not from operational convenience.

09 / Evacuation

● Published

The Evacuation Risk and Cost Framework: Estimating the Human and Financial Cost of Civilian Evacuation in Armed Conflict

2026

What does it actually cost to move a besieged population, and what does staying cost?

A report on a framework that scores seven weighted risk dimensions, estimates the cost of evacuating against the cost of staying, and finds the point at which those two curves cross. Calibrated against 31 documented historical operations.

10 / Evacuation

● Published

The Evacuation Readiness and Uncertainty Simulator: Showing How Poor Field Information Degrades Evacuation Decisions

2026

How much does poor field information degrade an evacuation decision?

A report on a simulator that models what happens when planners act on incomplete intelligence. All data is synthetic and reproducible from a seed, so the mechanism rather than any particular place is what is on display.

11 / Evacuation

● Published

The Evacuation Simulator: An Agent-Based Model of How Civilians Decide to Leave During Armed Conflict

2026

How do information and demographics decide who actually leaves?

A report on an agent-based model of household evacuation behaviour, tracing how warnings spread through a community and how age, mobility, and trust shape who reaches safety and who does not.

12 / Evacuation

● Published

The Mariupol Corridor Severity Model: A Daily Measure of Civilian Danger During the Siege of Mariupol, March to May 2022

July 2026

Could a daily severity measure have shown the danger in Mariupol as it unfolded?

A retrospective report scoring 77 days of the siege on a daily severity measure built from open sources. Conduct descriptions are attributed to their sources rather than adjudicated, and contested figures are left contested.

13 / Cultural heritage

● Published

The Digital Provenance Passport: An Automated Assistant for Tracing the Ownership History of Artworks and Cultural Objects

July 2026

Can an artwork's ownership history be checked automatically, and how far should that be trusted?

A report on an assistant that assembles a provenance timeline, flags looting and valuation risk, and issues a signed record. Candid about how much of the demonstration runs on fixtures rather than live sources.

14 / Cultural heritage

● Published

Provenance Search: An Automated Ownership-History Check for Artworks and Cultural Objects

July 2026

What can be established about an object's history from free public sources alone?

A report on a tool that queries seven public sources and scores confidence with a fixed, inspectable algorithm, deliberately flagging what cannot be verified rather than filling the gaps.

15 / Cultural heritage

● Published

VANGO: A Digital Passport for Recording Visits to Works of Art

2026

What is worth recording about a visit to a work of art?

A report on a digital souvenir passport that records attendance at art experiences. It performs no provenance or authenticity checking, and the report is explicit that nothing it records is evidence of ownership or lawful origin.

16 / Traceability

● Published

The Forced Labor Structural Risk Index: A Country-Level Measure of the Conditions Under Which Forced Labour Becomes More Likely

2026

Where are the conditions that make forced labour likely, before any case is detected?

A report on an index scoring 184 countries across 11 domains and 43 indicators, measuring the conditions that enable forced labour rather than counting cases. Ships with uncertainty bands and is meant to be read in tiers, not as a league table.

17 / Diplomacy

● Published

The Diplomatic Simulator: A Multi-Party Negotiation Simulator Driven by Artificial Intelligence Agents

July 2026

Can practitioners rehearse a multi-party negotiation against AI agents?

A report on a simulator in which AI delegations negotiate a live crisis, producing a structured record of positions, concessions, and tactics. Across every Monte Carlo trial run, no comprehensive settlement was reached.

18 / Disaster response

● Published

HASTE: High-speed Assessment and Satellite Tracking for Emergencies

2026

How fast can building damage be assessed after a disaster, and with how few labels?

A plain-language report on a satellite damage-assessment platform built by the Microsoft AI for Good Lab, used in 31 field deployments. The software is Microsoft's; only this report is the CoLab's.